Electability Doesn't Guarantee, Political Interests Take Priority
Jakarta, as a barometer of democracy for other regions, is under the spotlight ahead of the 2024 Governor Election, with several events showing how its politics changed. Political maneuvers for the 2024 Regional Election have been noticeable since the 2024 General Election. The prospective candidates who were expected to compete in this contest turned out not to match the expectations and the surveys that had been discussed. Based on a survey (INDIKATOR, 2024), the leading candidate for Jakarta Governor in the 2024 Regional Election is Anies Baswedan, with of the votes. He is followed by Ahok with , and Ridwan Kamil with . However, as of August 19, 2024, only Ridwan Kamil has been officially declared as a candidate for Jakarta Governor, paired with Suswono.
Anies Baswedan has a survey result more than higher than Ridwan Kamil.
The fate of Anies Baswedan as the candidate with the highest electability is predicted to be canceled in the contest of the Jakarta Governor Election. This speculation arose after the plenary meeting on August 18, 2024, where the Jakarta KPU (General Elections Commission) decided that Dharma Pongrekun-Kun Wardana Abyoto met the support requirements to run in the 2024 Jakarta Gubernatorial Election as an independent candidate. This decision has raised many questions among the people of Jakarta and has sparked concerns regarding allegations of identity card (KTP) fraud by the independent candidate pair Dharma Pongrekun-Kun Wardana in their bid to run for Jakarta Governor. What is being planned here?
12 Political Parties Form a Coalition: What Are Their Motives?
The Indonesia Maju Plus Coalition (KIM Plus) has officially endorsed Ridwan Kamil and Suswono in the upcoming Jakarta Governor Election. With the support of political parties, this coalition provides significant strength to the Ridwan Kamil-Suswono gubernatorial ticket (Metro TV, 2024a). The consolidation of political parties behind this candidate pair raises questions about the true motives behind this alliance.
Looking back to June 24, 2024, the Chairman of the Jakarta Regional Leadership Council of the Prosperous Justice Party (DPW PKS), Khoirudin, officially proposed Anies Baswedan's candidacy for the 2024 Jakarta Regional Head Election in a live broadcast on PKS's YouTube channel (PKSTV, 2024). However, the emergence of Suswono as Ridwan Kamil's running mate in this gubernatorial election, signals that PKS has shifted its support away from Anies Baswedan and has officially joined the strong KIM Plus coalition.
The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) secured the highest percentage of seats in the Jakarta Regional Election, which, according to Ahmad Riza Patria (Chairman of the Jakarta DPD Gerindra Party), granted PKS the right to choose the vice governor as Ridwan Kamil's running mate after joining the KIM Plus coalition. This opportunity allowed PKS to nominate one of its cadres, Suswono, to play an important role in the 2024 Jakarta Governor Election. PKS is expected to significantly strengthen the KIM Plus coalition. The nomination of Suswono marks the end of PKS's support for Anies Baswedan in this contest.
Political analyst Ray Rangkuti, during the "Panggung Demokrasi" broadcast, also discussed the emergence of Suswono. Suswono's candidacy effectively sidelined Kaesang, who was previously rumored to be Ridwan Kamil's running mate in Jakarta. As a PKS cadre, Suswono is seen as the most effective candidate for rallying support from PKS's base, which holds the most seats in the DPR and is capable of drawing substantial backing into the KIM Plus coalition (Metro TV, 2024b).
Another intriguing aspect of this coalition is the involvement of the National Awakening Party (PKB). According to the Secretary of the PKB Pilkada Desk, joining KIM Plus was a realistic choice for participating in the 2024 Regional Election. With only legislative seats, PKB was unable to independently nominate a candidate of its own. Speculation about tensions between PBNU and PKB also played a role in PKB's decision to join this coalition. However, this was firmly denied, with the official explanation being that PKB's merger into the coalition was driven by the strong potential for Ridwan Kamil and Suswono to win in the 2024 Governor Election.
In June 2024, the Jakarta Regional Leadership Council (DPW) of the National Awakening Party (PKB) officially declared its support for Anies Baswedan as the top candidate for the Jakarta gubernatorial race. On Wednesday, June 12, 2024, Hasbiallah Ilyas, the Chairman of DPW PKB Jakarta, announced this decision live from the party’s office in Pulo Gadung, East Jakarta. However, PKB soon faced a critical moment in its political strategy when it decided to join the Koalisi Indonesia Maju (KIM) Plus, along with eleven other parties, to support Ridwan Kamil and Suswono for governor and deputy governor of Jakarta (Bustomi, 2024).
Before aligning with KIM Plus, PKB had already endorsed Anies Baswedan as the gubernatorial candidate for Jakarta, even being the first party to make this endorsement. However, after the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the Nasdem Party, which had previously supported Anies, joined KIM Plus, PKB’s stance shifted. Yahya Staquf, the General Chairman of Nahdlatul Ulama (PBNU), criticized PKB under Muhaimin Iskandar’s leadership for frequently changing its decisions. PBNU views PKB as inconsistent and accuses it of not involving its scholars in decision-making (Septiana, 2024).
Previously, PKB and PBNU had been linked with various issues, and their conflict has intensified. The two groups have engaged in verbal attacks through social media and mass media. Muhammad Rodli Kaelani, Secretary-General of the National Coordinating Council of Garda Bangsa, reported that current PBNU leaders are trying to seize control of PKB, which is led by Muhaimin Iskandar, also known as Cak Imin. Accusations include attempts to take over PKB by forming a special committee (Pansus PKB) and political motivations behind the Hajj Special Committee initiated by the DPR, aimed at removing Yahya’s brother, Yaqut Cholil Qoumas, from his position as Minister of Religious Affairs (Amin, 2024). This sudden shift in PKB's political direction towards KIM Plus seems to align with the broader power struggle between PKB and PBNU, drawing increased public scrutiny on the ongoing issues between the two factions.
The Puppet Candidate Scenario, Dharma-Kun: "We Acted Before the Presidential Election Was Won”
The term "puppet candidate" has been applied to the pair Dharma Pongrekun-Kun Wardana Abyoto by several parties. The empty box option, which was anticipated to be a rival to Ridwan Kamil in the Jakarta Governor Election, disappeared after the Jakarta KPU officially confirmed their candidacy. Dharma Pongrekun himself refuted the puppet candidate label, stating that his declaration to run as Jakarta Governor was made long before the 2024 Presidential Election. February 3, 2024, was recorded as the day Dharma Pongrekun declared his candidacy for the 2024 Jakarta Governor Election, well before the Presidential Election on February 14 (Nasution, 2024).
On the other hand, some argue that the independent Dharma-Kun candidacy is part of a strategy by certain parties to prevent an uncontested election against the political party-backed gubernatorial and vice-gubernatorial candidates who would later register. This was observed by Rat Rangkuti on the "Panggung Demokrasi" broadcast on August 19, 2024, where he noted that the independent candidate is not seen as a threat by Ridwan Kamil and his coalition. The real threats to Ridwan Kamil were Anies Baswedan, Ahok, and the empty box option. Consequently, Anies was unable to run since PKS, PKB, and Nasdem joined the KIM Plus coalition. Additionally, PDIP was unable to nominate its candidate due to the candidacy threshold for regional head elections through political parties or coalitions, which hindered them from nominating Ahok, who was expected to be a candidate for Jakarta Governor and Deputy Governor.
Regarding the empty box option, Ray Rangkuti also pointed out that it was seen as a threat by the KIM Plus coalition because it would allow voters the option not to choose Ridwan Kamil in the 2024 gubernatorial election. Therefore, the emergence of an independent candidate was viewed as a divisive tactic. The independent candidate is suspected to be part of a certain agenda because data shows that independent candidates are not included in the surveys compared to other more popular names for Jakarta Governor. This suggests that, electorally, they are still far below Ridwan Kamil, making the likelihood of choosing an independent candidate very low, with their electability not even reaching despite meeting the necessary qualifications (Metro TV, 2024b).
Investigation into ID Card Misuse in the Endorsement of Independent Candidates
On August 16, 2024, allegations emerged regarding the misuse of NIKs (Indonesian ID numbers) without permission by several Jakarta residents who were listed as supporters of the Dharma Pongrekun-Kun Wardana pair. Some of these individuals claimed they did not even know the candidates and were suddenly registered as supporters of the independent candidate. Even more bizarre was the involvement of the child of former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan, who also fell victim to this ID card collection scheme to support Dharma-Kun. This was revealed by Anies Baswedan through his personal X/Twitter account. In addition to his child, the NIKs of Anies’ sibling and a colleague from his work team were also found among the list of supporters for the independent candidate Dharma Pongrekun-Kun Wardana (Nur, 2024).
The volunteer team of the independent candidates defended themselves by stating that the reported ID misuse involved less than of the total support they received, and they remained confident about their qualifications for the upcoming Jakarta gubernatorial election. However, some members of the public raised concerns about the police’s rejection of complaints from individuals who felt wronged by this unauthorized use of their ID cards. According to the Director of Special Criminal Investigation at the Jakarta Metropolitan Police, Commissioner Ade Safri Simanjuntak, such complaints must first receive a recommendation from the Bawaslu (Election Supervisory Agency) before an investigation can proceed. If a criminal element is found, the police will then follow up on the case. As of now, the reports filed are still under investigation by Bawaslu (Maharso, 2024).