From Paper Folding to Growth Models
Suppose a sheet of paper starts at about thick. In an ideal model, every fold doubles its thickness. After folds, the model gives:
That is farther than the average distance from Earth to the Moon. A real sheet cannot be folded that many times, so this is only an ideal model. Its defining pattern is that every fold multiplies the thickness by . Repeated multiplication by the same factor produces exponential growth.
Now imagine how an outbreak might begin. One person is infected and passes the infection to two others. At the next stage, each of those two people infects two more. If this continues, the number of new infections at each stage follows . Conditions change, so the number of new infections does not always double. This sequence describes only the pattern in our simplified example. It cannot predict how many people will become infected during an actual outbreak.
Definition of Exponents
An exponent is a compact way to write repeated multiplication. In the doubling model, the first few stages are:
At stage , the model can be written as . For example:
.
Meaning of Exponent Notation
An expression such as has two parts:
- is the base, the number being multiplied
- is the exponent, the number of equal factors
If is real and is a positive integer, then:
Zero Negative and Fractional Exponents
The rules for powers reach beyond counting repeated factors. An exponent of zero, a negative exponent, and a fractional exponent each come from demanding that the multiplication rules keep working, so the same laws extend to them without a new definition.
Zero Exponent
For every nonzero real number :
The zero-exponent rule follows from division of powers. Dividing by itself gives , while subtracting the exponents gives . Therefore, .
Negative Exponents
For every nonzero real number and positive integer :
The reason is that . A negative exponent therefore represents the reciprocal of the corresponding positive power. For example:
.
Fractional Exponents
For real-valued roots, let and let be a positive integer. Then:
Here, is the unique positive real number satisfying . For example, because .
Odd roots also accept negative real inputs, such as . Even roots of negative numbers are not real. State the domain because the same exponent notation can represent a real value for one base and no real value for another.
General Fractional Exponents
If and are positive integers, then:
First take the th root, then raise the result to the th power. For example:
.
Exponential Functions
An exponential function has the form with and :
- If , the function increases as increases
- If , the function decreases as increases
The first case models growth. The second models decay. The model is useful only while its factor and time interval reasonably match the situation being studied.
Growth Models for Bacteria Viruses and Populations
A growth model repeats one multiplication at a fixed interval, so one factor carries the starting value to the value after each step. Bacteria, viruses, and populations share the same arithmetic and differ only in what that factor means.
Bacterial Growth
In an ideal culture model, suppose every bacterium divides into two during each interval, with no deaths or resource limit. If is the initial count, then after intervals:
The base is the growth factor. If the culture starts with bacteria and divides every , then contains intervals:
Virus Spread
A simplified early-stage transmission model uses an average factor :
Here, is the number of people already infected at the starting point, before the first transmission cycle. The value counts the cycles that have passed, and is the number infected in cycle . This means . If , , and , then:
The calculation can produce a decimal because the formula uses an average. The final number of people is still a whole number. The value of can also change with behavior, immunity, prevention measures, and measurement methods. This calculation only shows the pattern under the stated conditions.
Population Growth
If a population grows by the same relative rate during every interval, then:
The factor includes the original population and the new growth. For an initial population of and a constant annual growth rate of :
This calculation applies the growth again each year. A real population growth rate can change from year to year.